Bulgaria/Paths

This article concerns gameplay, and as such does not need to conform to the "Perspective" and "Tone" sections of Our Rules and Our Style Guide. In other words, it does not cover in-game lore and may include information about events after January 1st 1936.

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Starting Situation

The Tsardom of Bulgaria under Tsar Ferdinand I got everything it wanted when the Central Powers won the First Weltkrieg, chief among its goals was the expansion of its borders to create ‘Greater Bulgaria.’ With great expansion came great cost in terms of an agitated non-Bulgarian populace, severe debt, and a destabilized political scene. In the wake of the 1925 Serbian Revolution, and subsequent political turmoil, the Tsar appointed Konstantin Georgiev as Prime Minister. Georgiev imposed martial law and implemented the State Protection Act which gave the government authoritarian powers to root out any and all opposition and dissidents. Georgiev was ousted before he could turn his rule into a full dictatorship but the Act was kept in place.

By 1936, Bulgaria is led by the Auth Dem PM Petko Stainov, head of a coalition between his National Liberals and the United People’s Progressive Party called the Second Liberal Concentration (or the Second Concentration). Cracking down on Serbian dissent has been the norm since the PM came to power. In the recent Operation Nishava, the Bulgarian army launched a mass operation against Serbian intellectuals and separatists to end them once and for all. In this crackdown though three members of the National Assembly (Sŭbranie) were arrested.

Opposition members in the Sŭbranie outraged at not only at the arrest of a few of their own but also the increasingly heavy-handed tactics of the Bulgarian Army will call for the abolition of the Act.

Operation Nishava

Operation Nishava Opening Events and Tree

In the Sŭbranie the Act needs 141 votes (a simple majority) to sucessfully abolish the act. In fact, if the government does not call for a vote on abolition and there are 200+ members who support it the opposition will push a vote through.

There are three main camps in the fight to Abolish the State Protection Act:

1. The Crown Prince, and through him his father the Tsar – He seeks to maintain the Act, and at the start of the legislative process the PM supports him and to maintain it as well.
2. The Petorka, or Committee of Five – It is a coalition of opposition parties which seeks to abolish the Act.
3. Zveno – A secretive military clique of supporters of the Georgiev administration, it wants bring down the whole Parliamentary system.

The ‘Fallout of Operation Nishava’ is a 300-day timed mission that will, if Zveno did not coup or the opposition not abolish the bill, see the Sŭbranie dissolve itself and the Tsar take control. The PM first starts off as supportive of the Crown Prince, but in the first week a small evet chain will trigger that can change his stance. This is not the end all as there be other chances by event to change the stance.

To achieve one of these results, a number of decision and events will become available to increase or decrease the various variables. Depending on the stance taken will see new decisions available, and static ones (like Fearmongering) will change the voting pattern to suit the stance (ie. Supporting Crown Prince will see more Deputies voting to maintain the Act, while if the Petorka is supported taking the decision will add Deputies for abolition.) There is also the popularity of the Crown Prince: every 30 days, his popularity will have an effect from things like, his own popularity, Deputy support and even Zveno support. The worse his perception the more Deputies will want to abolish the Act and add Zveno support.

To show all the decisions and their various dynamic outcomes would be a lot, so below is a quick guide on how to get each path.

• To Get the Zveno military coup, take Fearmongering right off the bat, and every time you can after it completes. This next part is optional as the only difference is if you are allied to Zveno or not is if Stainov will stay as PM (but it can also help to keep the number of Deputies who want to abolish the bill down): In the event, ‘Muraviev Reaches Out,’ don’t seek his advice, and in the follow up event a couple days later, ‘An Invitation from Colonel Georgiev’ take his advice and the PM will be allied to Zveno. Some of the decisions like ‘Spin Scandals About the Royal Family’ may be helpful if you are lucky enough for it to give Zveno support. Finally, when Black Monday hits, there will be an event about the ‘Bankruptcy of Bratya Bŭklovi.’ Failure to complete the relevant focus, ‘Force BTB to absorb Bratya Bŭklovi’ and letting the mission, ‘Save the Bratya Bŭklovi!’ winddown, will see the army try for a coup. By this time there should be enough coup support and it and Zveno will successfully take over.
  • Note that if Satinov is NOT allied to Zveno, the stability hit is doubled than if he was allied. It is something to think about as Zveno does not get a lot of opportunities to increase stability.
    • And if Satinov is allied to Zveno it may be wise to not choose any decisions to save up PP.
• Getting enough support for the abolition of the Act is not too hard either. In the event, ‘Muraviev Reaches Out,’ take his advice and the PM will now stand with the opposition against the Act. Fearmongering will add Deputy support against the bill, but just keep an eye on Zveno support. Taking the focus (repeatable up to four more times) ‘Curtail the Military League’ will cut some support. When you have sufficient support for abolition (141+, in reality 145+ as the increase in support ends in a 5 or 0) you can call a vote by taking the ‘Abolish the State Protection Act’ focus. Be mindful that one of four events will trigger which can lower your vote share (one will even see an army coup attempt).
• To maintain the bill is a bit tricky as you have to go the full 300 days without getting to 145 votes as if you take certain event options to force a vote, or even 200 votes as it would mean an automatic vote on abolition, all the while a Zveno coup lurkes in the background. There are many ways to get to keep the Act, just be mindful of the vote total and remember to take Fearmongering and ‘Curtail the Military League’ when needed. (Note that it is also possible to not need to take Fearmongering as long as Boris has a good reputation as it will keep the vote total down on its own.)
  • Note if may be best to have Stainov allied to the Constitutionalists or Zveno when going for a Royal Dictatorship as his replacement Georgi Kyoseivanov is a Crown loyalist, and doesn't give a penalty and gives stronger buffs.

To the right are just a few of the events worth highlighting:

If not allied with the opposition, the government’s junior coalition party, the United People’s Progressive Party, will demand it ally itself with democracy and support the abolition of the Act. If the PM does not agree, the UPP will leave the coalition, leaving the National Liberal Party as the sole ruling party.

The following involve a Zveno coup attempt:

• Letting the ‘Save the Bratya Bŭklovi!’ mission time out
• After Serbian rearmament, letting ‘Begin War Preparations!’ mission time out
• When taking the focus ‘Abolish the State Protection Act,’ one of four missions will trigger, with one having the option for the army to try for a coup

Another possible event that triggers from the ‘Abolish …’ focus could, if the option was chosen, lock some of the foci in the 'The Great Etatist Project' tree, which are highlighted.

Zveno Coup

Zveno Coup and its internal power struggle

If the military clique had enough strength, the army will seize power while leaving the Tsar in power under a Pat Aut government. If PM Stainov was secretly allied to Zveno, he will be kept on as PM. If not, General Kimon Georgiev will replace him. Zveno’s political tree deals with the power struggle for influence between the Republican faction, headed by Georgiev and Damyan Velchev, and the Tsarist faction led by General Pencho Zlatev. Each of the top four foci will give an event where each choice gives power to either of the two factions. If both factions were chosen twice, thereby making a tie, a tie breaker event will trigger when taking the focus ‘The Cessation of the Orchestra.’

Taking ‘The Cessation of the Orchestra’ will settle the dispute once and for all. If the Republican faction has more influence, Kimon Georgiev will overthrow the monarchy and declare Bulgaria a Republic with himself as President (and if applicable, become the PM as well). If the Tsarists on the other hand have more influence, Zlatev will become the new PM, keeping the monarchy in place.

Yugoslavia

Yugoslavia

Zveno’s secret path involves forming Yugoslavia as Bulgaria. To get it, no German or Austrian support (or even from their allies) must have been accepted during the Fourth Balkan War. This means the focus, ‘Appeal for German Support’ too. After defeating Serbia, it must have been annexed, and when after the war the ‘Fate of Serbia’ decision appears, there will be an extra option: ‘We Shall Seek a new, Yugoslav Direction.’

Taking the option will not only give you claims but also a new branch to the Hegemon of the Balkans focus tree. From the foci, and through them decisions, claims will be given on Yugoslavian area of Austria-Hungary, but also the ability to declare Bulgaria, Yugoslavia. The latter can only happen after a war with Austria, which, if enough ground has been taken, will get a peace deal offer to trigger. Once all the necessary states are owned, and possibly then some from the Austrian peace deal, Bulgaria will be able to proclaim itself Yugoslavia, with the national flag dependent on if Bulgaria is a monarchy or a republic. A new tree will open up with one of the options to create a new faction, the Yugosphere.

The Act is Abolished - The Constitutionalists

Constitutionalists and subsequent elections

If there was sufficient support for abolishing the Act, the opposition will be able to repeal it. The Second Liberal Concentration will, if it has not already, collapse, and the PM’s National Liberal Party will join an all-parliamentary coalition. This Committee of (now) Six under a Soc Con government becomes the ruling party. In addition, PM Stainov will keep his position only if he was working with the opposition.

With democracy in full restoration, subsequent elections will be a contest by four parties:

1. National Liberal Party – Soc Con
2. Democratic Party – Market Lib
3. Agrarian National Union – Soc Lib
4. Social Democratic Workers’ Party-Broad Socialists – Soc Dem

The Balkan Union

Balkan Union

The Constitutionalists’ secret path involves creating a Balkan Union, a defensive, economic, and political union at that. This can only be achieved if Bulgaria was lenient towards Serbia during and after the Balkan War. During the war Serbia must not have been puppeted or annexed. After the war, the ‘War Reparations Investment Fund’ focus must NOT be taken.

After the next election in 1938 and finishing the focus ‘Never Another Georgiev,’ the decision to Create the Balkan Union will appear. The option in the corresponding event will change the Hegemon of the Balkans focus tree by removing the ‘War Reparations Investment Fund’ focus and adding a new branch called ‘Renew the Treaties of 1904.’ The proposed Balkan Union will build upon the shared proposals put forth in 1904 that were never implemented.

As more and more of the foci in the branch are taken, the national spirit, ‘The Balkan Union’ will be modified more and more, and the full outcome of which shown above. Lastly, the military alliance created for the Union is called the Balkan Defense Cooperation.

The Act is Maintained - Royal Dictatorship

Royal Dictatorship

If the government was able to hold off a successful vote to abolish the State Protect Act while also fending off an army coup, the Sŭbranie will dissolve itself and allow the Tsar suspend the constitution and take total control. PM Stainov will keep his position only if he was working with the Crown Prince. The ruling party, whether still the Second Concentration, or if it fell apart and it is the National Liberal Party, will through a focus become the Non-Partisan Regime, still Auth Dem. Subsequent elections will always be won by the new Regime.

Third Bulgarian Empire

Third Bulgarian Empire

The Royal Dictatorship’s secret path involves creating for Bulgaria an empire, becoming the Third Bulgarian Empire. If Bulgaria can defeat the Belgrade Pact (ie. getting to a peace conference with Serbia, and annexing or puppeting it) and while being at war with the Ottomans occupy Constantinople both within 150 days, a new decision will appear in the decision tab. When selected, an event will trigger which will add a new branch to the Hegemon of the Balkans focus tree. From this tree branch, the ‘Third Bulgarian Empire’ focus will change the country into an Empire and also create a new faction, the Bulgarian hegemony.

Balkan War Loss

Bulgaria lost the Balkan War

If Bulgaria lost the war to Serbia and the Belgrade Pact, the Tsar will take full responsibility for the loss and abdicate in favor of his son, Boris (III). Hegemon of the Balkans focus tree will be replaced by the National Catastrophe tree. The fallout of the war and abdication will be different depending on who was in power at the time:

If Zveno Was in Power

Zveno was in power; rise of the Legionaries

Blaming the institution of the monarchy for the loss, Zveno will coup once again. Instead of celebrating Boris’ coronation, the Royal Family will be overthrown and Bulgaria proclaimed a Republic, with Kimon Georgiev taking over as President.

Not long after, the Zveno government will have a big decision to make – stay allied to the Bulgarian Legions (officially the Union of Bulgarian National Legions) or not.

• If it stayed allied, the remaining monarchist generals, angry at the government’s support for the Legions, will stage a coup of their own and invite Boris back to a reconstituted Tsardom. The Royal Dictatorship tree will load.
• If ties with the Legions were cut, they will conduct a coup of their very own. Led by Ivan Dochev, Legionaries will march on Sofia and, after witnessing defections in their ranks, Zveno leaders will flee the country. The new Nat Pop Legion regime will collapse if it does not strike first when Serbia is dealing with the IMRO crisis. If that happens, the remaining clique of Tsarist officers will coup the government and restore Boris III to power. The Royal Dictatorship tree will load.
  • If the Legions were successful in their war against the Serbs, at the end of their tree, Dochev can declare the National Legionary State and expel the entire Royal Family (who will settle in Germany) or (being originally founded as a monarchist organization) choose to reinstate the Tsardom but in the form of the Tsar’s brother Kyril (notice not Boris' son and heir).

If the Constitutionalists Were in Power

Constitutionalists were in power; Rise of the Fatherland Front

With the defeat of Bulgaria, groups from all across the political spectrum have taken the opportunity to start raising hell. In particular, three groups (the Auth Dem Agrarians, the Rad Soc faction of the Social Democratic Workers’ Party and the Syndicalist Agriculture Professional Confederation) have coalesced to support a shared goal, taking down the monarchy, and created The Fatherland Front.

The Front will strike at the funeral of former PM Konstantin Georgiev. Step one was his assassination days prior. Step two will be a large-scale assassination at the funeral service by blowing up part of the Church. Being a former PM and military man, the country’s elite will be in attendance, including the Royal Family. (This is an allusion to the OTL 1925 St Nedelya Church assault. The Tsar was not present at that time as he had attended a different funeral for those killed in an earlier attempt on his life.)

• If the Tsar was not present when the bomb went off, the Tsar supported by the army will coup the government and rule on his own. The Royal Dictatorship tree will load.
• If instead the Tsar and his government were caught in the blast, left leaderless the Fatherland Front will fill the power vacuum and take control and declare Bulgaria a (Socialist) Republic.

As the dust settles and with the Bulgarian Army in disarray, the three factions of the Front will be in disagreement in what to do until a formal army can be mustered. If the Agrarians (the Auth Dem Bulgarian Agrarian National Union) are allowed to use their Orange Guard as the military force, leader Aleksandar Stamboliyski will turn on the Front and take complete control.

If the peasant militias were used as the military force, the Agrarians will still attempt a coup but will be beaten back. That will leave two factions left in the Front, and it will have to decide who will lead:

1. the Front’s leader, the Rad Soc Social Democratic Workers’ Party – Narrow Socialists, under Georgi Dimitrov. If chosen it will later rename itself its colloquial name, the Bulgarian Communist Party.
2. the Syndicalist Agriculture Professional Confederation, under Manol Vasev. After completing ‘Integrate the Anarchist Cliques,’ if ‘Socialization of the Land’ is not completed within 1,200 days, the Totalist Federation of Anarchist Communists will coup the government and Vasil Ikonomov will take over.

The Fatherland Front can join the Belgrade Pact if certain conditions are met.

Fatherland Front Counter-Coup/Joining the Belgrade Pact

For each path of the Fatherland Front, it is possible to fall victim to a Royalist coup. All paths will start off with the Royalist Resistance national spirit which can be removed, diminished, or diminished and then removed. If removed, it is possible to also join the Belgrade Pact.

Agrarians

Stamboliyski and Royal Resistance

If the Orange Guard couped and Aleksandar Stamboliyski came to power, he will have to navigate royal resistance. Taking the focus 'Throw Out the Royal Memorials' will lessen the Royalist Resistance national spirit but not get rid of it. To remove it, 'Socialization of the Land,' Perfect Democracy,' 'Organize the Bulgarian Youth,' and Mass Pressed Labor Actions' must be taken first.

If the foci were taken in the correct order and Serbia has dealt with the IMRO, the focus 'A Path to Peace' can be taken which will se Bulgaria petition to join the Belgrade Pact.

If the Royalist Resistance national spirit was not removed or just diminished, taking 'A Path to Peace' will see the Royalists strike and coup the government. With Tsar Boris dead, his brother Kyril will be invited to take the throne.

Narrow Socialists

Dimitrov and Royal Resistance

If the Orange Guard were dealt with and the Narrow Socialist faction under Georgi Dimitrov was put in power, he will have to navigate royal resistance.

If the focus 'Minority Political Integration' was taken last after all other in his tree, it will remove the Royalist Resistance national spirit, enabling him to safely join the Belgrade Pact if the focus to do so was taken.

Or if 'Minority Political Integration' was taken before all others were, it will diminish the Royalist Resistance national spirit and the last focus to be taken will remove it.

If the Royalist Resistance national spirit was not removed or just diminished, taking 'A Path to Peace' will see the Royalists strike and coup the government. With Tsar Boris dead, his brother Kyril will be invited to take the throne.

Agriculture Professional Confederation

Vasev and Royal Resistance

If the Orange Guard were dealt with and the Agriculture Professional Confederation under Manol Vasev was put in power, he will have to navigate royal resistance.

If the focus 'Minority Political Integration' was taken last after all other in his tree, it will remove the Royalist Resistance national spirit, enabling him to safely join the Belgrade Pact if the focus to do so was taken.

Or if 'Minority Political Integration' was taken before all others were, it will diminish the Royalist Resistance national spirit and the last focus to be taken will remove it.

If the Royalist Resistance national spirit was not removed or just diminished, taking 'A Path to Peace' will see the Royalists strike and coup the government. With Tsar Boris dead, his brother Kyril will be invited to take the throne.

If the Royal Dictatorship Was in Power

Royals were in power

With an increasingly number of protests in the streets, the new Tsar will be given a way out of the crisis of defeat by head of the now defunct United People’s Progressive Party: restore the constitution and drop the Royal Dictatorship. If he accepts the county will be put on the Constitutionalist path. If the Tsar insists on keeping the Dictatorship, he will be replaced by a Zveno coup which will also overthrow the monarchy and declare a Republic.

Death of Ferdinand

Death of 'The Great Restorer'

On a last note, if Tsar Ferdinand was able to keep the throne well into the 1940s, sometime in 1948 he will pass away and be succeeded by his son and heir, Boris (III).